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Counter-Cyclical Recruitment

Counter-cyclicality often refers to balancing economic fluctuations through policy measures. However, it doesn't have to be just for the benefit of governments and administrations. Companies can also invest counter-cyclically! The current economic downturn actually provides opportunities for companies with a long-term perspective.

Counter-Cyclical Recruitment


  1. Because there are currently more available talent in the job market than there have been in a while.
  2. The peak of interest rates has likely been reached, and although growth might be sluggish next year, a new upswing is expected in the following years.
  3. Recruitment and onboarding take time, and when the upswing begins, your team needs to be ready. This gives you an advantage over your competitors.
  4. Profit!


Let me provide some reasoning.


1. Reduced Competition for Talent and a Deteriorating Employment Trend

Quoting the Bank of Finland's forecast (September 15, 2023): "Long-standing strong employment faces a setback during a recession. The employment rate for 20-64-year-olds will decline to 77.7% in 2024. In 2025, as economic growth strengthens, the number of employed will increase again, and the employment rate will return close to the level of 2022."


2. Inflation Has Peaked

Inflation in Finland is already quite moderate, but due to differences in inflation and growth rates among eurozone countries, the European Central Bank's policy interest rate may still be relatively high for Finland in 2024, potentially hindering investments.



3. Recruitment and Onboarding Duration

The success of recruitment can be assessed on several levels: A) how suitable the person hired is, B) the success of onboarding the new employee, C) the ability to make the new hire productive and keep them as a long-term employee. For roles like specialist or managerial positions, this process can easily take 6-18 months. If a company wants to be prepared for the next upswing, now might be the optimal time to start recruiting.



If you want to have recruitment discussions beyond ad-hoc situations, feel free to get in touch with the author of this blog, Mikko Kaikkonen from Rekrytointitalli. (Contact information below)



- Bank of Finland forecast on September 15, 2023:

- Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment: Employment Review, July 2023:


Mikko Kaikkonen
CEO, Recruitment Consultant
Master of Business Administration
040 577 3768
Rekrytointitalli Oy | Kyllikinportti 2, 00240 Helsinki |


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